Climate experts have warned that any violation of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) could significantly heighten climate-related risks for Pakistan and India. The treaty serves as a crucial framework for hydrological data sharing and forecasting related to floods, droughts, and water security. Water specialists from Bahauddin Zakariya University shared their views with Associated Press of Pakistan amid ongoing tensions between the neighboring countries.
Dr Turab-ul-Hassan emphasized that climate change is already altering rainfall patterns and intensifying heatwaves, adversely affecting agricultural productivity and stability. He warned that any interruption in treaty commitments could lead to unpredictable water supplies, disrupt sowing cycles, and reduce yields of key crops such as wheat and rice, ultimately threatening food security.
Malik Ammar Yasir Khakhi highlighted the impact of climate variability on hydropower generation by altering river flows. He cautioned that a breakdown in cooperation could complicate dam planning and operations, potentially increasing reliance on thermal power generation and raising greenhouse gas emissions. Khakhi further politicizing the treaty could transform environmental stress into a geopolitical challenge, undermining regional stability and weakening both countries' ability to collectively respond to climate change.
Khakhi Pakistan's agriculture heavily depends on the Indus Basin irrigation network, which irrigates most of the country's farmland. Irregular water flows, he said, could intensify drought conditions, increase food prices, and push rural communities toward poverty and displacement.
Dr Muhammad Aon stressed that preserving and strengthening the treaty is not only a diplomatic necessity but also an important climate adaptation strategy for the region. He described the IWT as one of the oldest confidence-building measures between Pakistan and India and warned that any unilateral modification could weaken its effectiveness and increase the risk of resource-based conflict in South Asia.
The experts underscored that the treaty does not contain an exit clause, preventing any signatory—including Pakistan, India, or the World Bank—from unilaterally withdrawing from it. They emphasized that any disruption to the treaty would weaken cooperation on water data sharing, flood forecasting, and technical coordination. The accelerating melt of Himalayan glaciers feeding the Indus river system further highlights the need for continued cooperation and data sharing in maintaining regional stability and ensuring sustainable water management.
Preserving and strengthening the Indus Waters Treaty is crucial not only for diplomatic relations but also as a vital climate adaptation strategy for South Asia, experts argue.
