Oil Prices Experience Slight Increase Amidst Trade Talk Uncertainty

Oil prices saw a marginal rise on Monday, although ongoing uncertainty surrounding trade negotiations between the United States and China continues to weigh on the market. This situation casts a shadow over the prospects for global economic expansion and, consequently, the demand for fuel. Additionally, the potential for increased supply from OPEC+ adds to the subdued atmosphere.

Brent crude futures increased by 21 cents, or 0.3%, reaching $67.08 per barrel as of 0742 GMT.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude experienced a gain of 24 cents, equivalent to 0.4%, to settle at $63.26 a barrel.

Notably, both benchmarks have shown upward movement for the past three trading sessions.

Expert Analysis

Michael McCarthy, the chief executive officer at Moomoo Australia, an online trading platform, commented that the “absence of news is modestly lifting oil prices.” He further noted that traders are adopting short positions in anticipation of a possible increase in OPEC+ supply from the meeting on May 5, coupled with a significant boost in production within the United States.

OPEC+ Meeting in Focus

It is anticipated that certain members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, collectively known as OPEC+, might propose accelerating the increases in oil output for the second consecutive month during their meeting scheduled for May 5.

Previous Week’s Performance

Last week saw Brent and WTI prices decline by over 1% due to expectations of oversupply in conjunction with anxieties regarding the repercussions of tariffs on the global economic landscape.

Trade War Concerns

The market has been tumultuous due to conflicting signals emanating from both U.S. President Donald Trump and Beijing concerning progress in de-escalating the trade conflict, which poses a threat to global economic vitality.

Vandana Hari, the founder of Vanda Insights, a provider of oil market analysis, stated that “market participants will be attentive for a breakthrough in the U.S.-China trade situation as a buying opportunity.”

Contradictory Statements on Trade Negotiations

In the most recent statement from Washington, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent did not corroborate President Trump’s claim that negotiations with China were ongoing. Previously, Beijing had refuted the occurrence of any discussions.

IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings

Numerous attendees at the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Spring Meetings suggested that the Trump administration exhibited internal disagreements regarding its demands from trading partners impacted by the widespread tariffs.

Developments in Iran

Investors are closely monitoring nuclear discussions between Iran and the United States in Oman this week. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi conveyed his “extreme caution” regarding the prospects for successful negotiations.

Additionally, a substantial explosion at Iran’s primary port in Bandar Abbas resulted in at least 40 fatalities and over 1,200 injuries, as reported by state media on Sunday.

US Urges Peace Deal

On Sunday, high-ranking officials within the Trump administration urged Russia and Ukraine to advance toward a peace agreement following a private meeting between President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy at the Vatican the previous day.