The Syrian conflict has been one of the most complex and volatile geopolitical struggles in recent history. From the brutal civil war that began in 2011 to the latest developments involving Bashar al-Assad’s retreat and the rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the dynamics in Syria have shifted dramatically. In this article, we will explore the strategic movements of Assad, HTS, and the role of global powers in what seems to be a carefully orchestrated geopolitical trap.

The Unexpected Fall of Damascus

In a stunning turn of events, Damascus, the capital of Syria, fell within just ten days. The rapid collapse left the world stunned, with many questions surrounding the circumstances that led to the Syrian government’s downfall. While there are various theories — ranging from Syria’s army being demoralized to the lack of will to fight — the reality remains unclear. What is evident is that the Syrian regime’s sudden loss of control has only intensified the confusion surrounding the situation.

The situation became more complicated following a ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel, which was signed at the end of November. The very next day, the group known as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), led by former Al-Qaeda commander Abu Muhamad Golani, launched an offensive from Idlib, attacking Aleppo. These fighters, equipped with advanced Western artillery, found almost no resistance as the Syrian military defected, causing the regime to crumble.

The Rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has evolved from being a group loosely associated with Al-Qaeda into one of the most significant players in the Syrian conflict. The group, which now includes fighters from various global jihadi factions, managed to seize control of much of Syria’s northwest with little opposition. HTS’s swift advance saw them reach Damascus in less than ten days.

Abu Muhamad Golani, now seen sporting a Zelensky-style fatigue shirt and a trimmed beard, presented himself as a “moderate” leader of the opposition. Western media quickly endorsed this image, with reports framing him and his followers as a new face of the “moderate Islamic opposition.” This image was bolstered by media campaigns that portrayed HTS as a force for change in Syria.

Assad’s Strategic Retreat: A Calculated Move?

Many analysts suggest that the fall of the Syrian government may have been part of a larger, more deliberate geopolitical strategy orchestrated by Assad and his allies. The sudden retreat of Assad’s forces and his decision to leave without a fight raises suspicions of a calculated move to escape the escalating violence. Some point to Assad’s recent visit to Moscow for his son’s graduation, where he left his immediate family behind, as a sign of premeditated planning.

Reports also indicate that the Wagner Group, a Russian private military company, played a role in relocating Assad’s extended family to Russia, with support from Iran. This raises questions about whether the Syrian president’s retreat was part of a broader strategy to consolidate power and avoid further bloodshed.

A Trap Set for Western Powers

One of the more compelling arguments is that the West, particularly the United States, the UK, France, Israel, and Turkey, have been drawn into a geopolitical trap. By supporting groups like HTS and arming them with advanced weaponry, these powers may have inadvertently prolonged the Syrian conflict and set the stage for further instability.

The complex web of alliances between Russia, Iran, Syria, and Turkey also suggests that these powers were aware of the unfolding events but chose to step back. Iran and Russia, realizing that the West’s support for HTS would overextend their military resources, allowed the situation to unfold. Assad’s decision to step down and leave the country could have been a strategic move to avoid further escalation while securing his allies’ objectives.

The Path Forward: Who Will Control Syria?

With HTS now in control, the future of Syria remains uncertain. The situation is further complicated by the interests of foreign powers, including the ongoing involvement of Russia, Iran, and Turkey, each pursuing their own objectives. It is possible that over the next decade, the West will face a humiliating withdrawal, much like they did in Afghanistan.

In the long run, Russia, Iran, and even China may emerge stronger from the conflict, with more control over Syria’s future. Meanwhile, Golani and his forces will likely face immense challenges, particularly regarding the disputed Golan Heights, an area of strategic importance that continues to elude their control despite their claims of victory.

Conclusion: A Shifting Geopolitical Landscape

The Syrian conflict has become a high-stakes game of geopolitics, where every decision made by regional and global powers has profound consequences. As the West grapples with its support for HTS and its growing role in the region, the true scope of this conflict will continue to unfold. Assad’s retreat, the rise of HTS, and the shifting alliances of Russia, Iran, and Turkey have set the stage for a new chapter in Syria’s turbulent history.

As global powers jockey for influence, one thing is clear: the future of Syria is far from decided, and the geopolitical trap that has been set may have far-reaching consequences for years to come.