Wheat Production Target Missed

The nation has fallen short of its wheat production target, with preliminary estimates indicating a yield of 28.42 million tons cultivated across 9.1 million hectares. This falls short of the aspired 33.58 million tons from 10.368 million hectares initially projected for the Rabi Season 2024-2025.

Data provided by provincial administrations during a Federal Committee on Agriculture (FCA) session, led by Federal Minister for National Food Security and Research (MNFS&R) Rana Tanveer Hussain, revealed the estimated wheat output for 2024-25. The figures represent a 10% decrease in production compared to the preceding year.

During its meeting in November 2024, the FCA had previously established a wheat production goal of 33.58 million tons for the Rabi Season 2024-2025, anticipating cultivation across 10.368 million hectares.

Potential for Food Crisis

The meeting also addressed the projected onion production for 2024-25, estimating it at 2.7 million tons from 0.17 million hectares. This signifies a 15.7% increase in production, despite a 17.3% decrease in cultivated area compared to the previous year. Similarly, tomato production for 2024-25 is forecasted at 654,000 tons from 53,000 hectares, reflecting an 8.8% increase in both production and a 4.8% increase in area. Potato production for 2024-25 is also estimated at 654,000 tons from 53,000 hectares, indicating an 8.8% rise in production.

The FCA assessed the performance of Rabi crops (2024-25) and defined objectives for the Kharif season 2025-26.

The FCA set a cotton production target of 10.18 million bales from 2.2 million hectares. A rice production target of 9.17 million tons was also established for over three million hectares of land.

Additionally, the FCA outlined a sugarcane production target of 80.3 million tons for the year 2026-25, intending cultivation across 1.1 million hectares. The maize production target was set at 9.7 million tons from over 1.5 million hectares. Goals for other crops, including mung, maash, and chillies, were also determined by the FCA.

Senior officials from the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) noted that rainfall from January to April 2025 was 39% below average. Specifically, April experienced 60% below average precipitation, resulting in extremely dry conditions in the southern regions, particularly Sindh and Balochistan.

Overall, temperatures are expected to be higher than usual in most parts of the country from January to April 2025. From May to July 2025, above-normal rainfall is anticipated in most areas, excluding May.

Temperature levels are projected to remain above average in the majority of the country over the next three months, with the exception of July.

The meeting saw participation from representatives of provincial agriculture departments, IRSA, PMD, State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), Zarai Taraqiati Bank Ltd (ZTBL), National Fertiliser Development Centre (NFDC), Agriculture Policy Institute (API), Federal Seed Certification and Registration Department, Department of Plant Protection (DPP), Federal Water Management, Pakistan Oil Seed Board, Pakistan Agriculture Storage and Services Cooperation, senior official of the MNFS&R, and chairman Pakistan Agricultural Research Council (PARC).