Wheat Production Target Missed

Pakistan has fallen short of its wheat production target, with estimates indicating a yield of 28.42 million tons from 9.1 million hectares. This is against the initially set goal of 33.58 million tons from a cultivated area of 10.368 million hectares for the Rabi Season 2024-2025.

Reports from provincial governments, presented at the Federal Committee on Agriculture (FCA) meeting, highlighted the shortfall. The meeting was led by Federal Minister for National Food Security and Research (MNFS&R) Rana Tanveer Hussain. The current estimate of 28.42 million tons from 9.1 million hectares represents a 10% decrease compared to the previous year’s production.

During its session in November 2024, the FCA had established a wheat crop production target of 33.58 million tons for the Rabi Season 2024-2025, aiming to cultivate 10.368 million hectares.

Potential Need for Wheat Imports

The situation raises concerns about potential food security challenges, with suggestions that immediate wheat imports may be necessary to mitigate any crisis.

In contrast, onion production for 2024-25 is projected at 2.7 million tons from 0.17 million hectares, marking a 15.7% increase in production despite a 17.3% decrease in cultivated area compared to the previous year. Similarly, tomato production is estimated at 654,000 tons from 53,000 hectares, reflecting an 8.8% increase in production and a 4.8% increase in area. Potato production is also estimated at 654,000 tons from 53,000 hectares, showing an 8.8% increase.

The FCA assessed the performance of Rabi crops (2024-25) and set targets for the upcoming Kharif season 2025-26.

For the Kharif season, the FCA has set a cotton production target of 10.18 million bales from a cultivated area of 2.2 million hectares. A rice production target of 9.17 million tons was also established for an area exceeding three million hectares.

The committee also outlined a sugarcane production target of 80.3 million tons for the year 2026-25, to be cultivated over 1.1 million hectares. The maize production target was set at 9.7 million tons from over 1.5 million hectares. Production targets for other crops, including mung beans, maash beans, and chillies, were also determined.

Officials from the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) reported that rainfall from January to April 2025 was 39% below the average. April experienced 60% below-average rainfall, leading to extremely dry conditions in the southern regions of Sindh and Balochistan.

Overall, temperatures are expected to remain higher than usual across most of the country from January to April 2025. From May to July 2025, above-normal rainfall is anticipated in most areas, excluding May. Temperatures are expected to remain above normal for the next three months, except for July.

The meeting saw participation from representatives of provincial agriculture departments, IRSA, PMD, State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), Zarai Taraqiati Bank Ltd (ZTBL), National Fertiliser Development Centre (NFDC), Agriculture Policy Institute (API), Federal Seed Certification and Registration Department, Department of Plant Protection (DPP), Federal Water Management, Pakistan Oil Seed Board, Pakistan Agriculture Storage and Services Cooperation, senior officials from the MNFS&R, and the chairman of the Pakistan Agricultural Research Council (PARC).