Wheat Production Target Missed

Pakistan has fallen short of its wheat production goal, with preliminary estimates indicating an output of 28.42 million tons from 9.1 million hectares. This is against the targeted 33.58 million tons from 10.368 million hectares for the Rabi Season 2024-2025.

Data from provincial governments, reviewed during a Federal Committee on Agriculture (FCA) meeting led by the Federal Minister for National Food Security and Research (MNFS&R) Rana Tanveer Hussain, show a 10% decrease in wheat production compared to the previous year. The estimated yield stands at 28.42 million tons cultivated across 9.1 million hectares.

During its session in November 2024, the FCA had set a wheat production target of 33.58 million tons for the Rabi Season 2024-2025, to be achieved from a cultivated area of 10.368 million hectares.

Other Crop Production Estimates

The meeting also heard that onion production for 2024-25 is projected at 2.7 million tons from 0.17 million hectares, representing a 15.7% increase in production despite a 17.3% reduction in cultivated area compared to last year. Similarly, tomato production is estimated at 654,000 tons from 53,000 hectares, marking an 8.8% rise in production and a 4.8% expansion in cultivated area year-over-year. Potato production for 2024-25 is also estimated at 654,000 tons from 53,000 hectares, reflecting an 8.8% increase.

The FCA assessed the performance of Rabi crops (2024-25) and established targets for the Kharif season 2025-26.

Production Targets for Kharif Season 2025-26
  • Cotton: 10.18 million bales from 2.2 million hectares
  • Rice: 9.17 million tons from over 3 million hectares
  • Sugarcane (2026-25): 80.3 million tons from 1.1 million hectares
  • Maize: 9.7 million tons from over 1.5 million hectares

The FCA also determined targets for other crops, including mung, maash, and chillies.

Weather Conditions

Officials from the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) reported that precipitation from January to April 2025 was 39% below average, with April experiencing 60% below-average rainfall and extremely dry conditions in Sindh and Balochistan.

Temperatures are expected to remain above normal across most of the country from January to April 2025. Above-normal rainfall is anticipated in most regions from May to July 2025, except in May. Temperatures are projected to stay above normal in most areas during the next three months, excluding July.

Representatives from provincial agriculture departments, IRSA, PMD, State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), Zarai Taraqiati Bank Ltd (ZTBL), National Fertiliser Development Centre (NFDC), Agriculture Policy Institute (API), Federal Seed Certification and Registration Department, Department of Plant Protection (DPP), Federal Water Management, Pakistan Oil Seed Board, Pakistan Agriculture Storage and Services Cooperation, senior officials from the MNFS&R, and the chairman of the Pakistan Agricultural Research Council (PARC) attended the meeting.