Pakistan’s Inflation Rate Declines in June 2025

The headline inflation rate in Pakistan registered at 3.2% year-on-year in June 2025. This figure represents a decrease compared to May 2025, when the rate was 3.5%, according to data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Tuesday.

On a month-on-month comparison, there was an increase of 0.2% in June 2025, contrasting with a 0.2% decrease in the prior month and a 0.5% increase in June 2024.

The average CPI inflation for FY25 was 4.49%, a significant drop from the 23.41% recorded in FY24.

Inflation has posed a considerable economic challenge for Pakistan, particularly in recent times. The CPI inflation rate peaked at 38% in May 2023 but has since been on a downward trend.

The latest CPI reading aligns with the government’s projections.

The Finance Ministry’s recent economic report anticipated inflation to fall within the 3-4% range for June.

The monthly outlook stated, “Increased remittances and exports are expected to maintain the current account in surplus for FY 2025.”

Previously, the Economic Survey 2024-25 predicted that inflation would remain between 4.5-5% during FY25, supported by reduced prices of perishable food items and sufficient reserves of essential non-perishable goods.

The CPI reading also corresponded with forecasts from several brokerage firms.

JS Global had projected a 3.1% headline inflation rate for Pakistan in June.

JS Global noted, “Following a 3.5% YoY reading in May 2025, the CPI is expected to be at 3.1% YoY in June 2025. The base effect is diminishing, indicating a return to standard price patterns.”

Insight Securities, another brokerage firm, had anticipated a headline inflation rate of 3.2% for June.

Urban and Rural Inflation

The PBS detailed that urban CPI inflation decreased to 3% year-on-year in June 2025, compared to 3.5% in the previous month and 14.9% in June 2024.

Month-on-month, it remained stable at 0.1% in June 2025, consistent with the previous month and compared to 0.6% in June 2024.

Rural CPI inflation rose by 3.6% year-on-year in June 2025, an increase from 3.4% in the prior month and 9.3% in June 2024.

On a month-on-month basis, it increased by 0.5% in June 2025, compared to a 0.5% decrease in the preceding month and a 0.3% increase in June 2024.