Assessing Pakistan’s Flood Crisis: Causes, Impacts, and Solutions

The ongoing floods in Pakistan, which have displaced millions and resulted in nearly a thousand deaths since June, are a grim echo of the devastating floods of 2022. As the nation grapples with the surging waters, critical questions arise: Could the extensive damage have been mitigated? What role has climate change played? Did the release of water from India, despite prior warnings, worsen the situation for its downstream neighbor? Are governance failures or inadequate preparation to blame for the widespread devastation?

To gain insights into these pressing issues, Dialogue Earth consulted Muhammad Ehsan Leghari, a water resource management expert and Sindh province representative at the Indus River System Authority, Pakistan’s water regulatory body. He provided expert commentary on the factors contributing to Pakistan’s unprecedented flooding, evaluated the effectiveness of current flood control measures, and suggested strategies for more effective flood management in the future. The following is an edited version of that discussion.

Key Factors Behind Recurrent Floods
Natural and Human-Made Influences

Drawing on the insights of geographer Gilbert F White from 1942, “Floods are ‘acts of God’, but flood losses are largely acts of man.” Choices regarding floodplain development and management significantly impact the severity of disasters. Globally, including in Pakistan, there’s been a lag in adopting behavioral adjustments alongside engineering solutions, with frequent instances of inadequate or inappropriate implementation.

Several essential factors generally amplify the impacts of flooding. Ineffective governance transforms emergencies into full-blown disasters, as evident in the recent flood-related fatalities in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and other regions. A lack of rational spatial and land-use planning exacerbates both urban and riverine flooding. Top-down planning approaches often overlook the actual needs and experiences of most Pakistani citizens. Political and bureaucratic elites tend to favor “brick-and-mortar” projects that, ironically, increase flood and hazard impacts.

Natural factors contributing to the floods include intense monsoon rains, with rainfall ranging from 200 to 300mm as forecasted, glacial melt, and storms predicted amid heatwaves in the north. However, human-induced factors cannot be disregarded. Deforestation escalates runoff, while urbanization and encroachments obstruct natural drainage pathways. The Ravi Urban Development Authority’s paving of floodplains along the Ravi River in Punjab has converted absorbent areas into concrete surfaces, heightening vulnerability by transforming these areas into river conduits.

Reports such as Pakistan’s 2025 Monsoon Prediction, the National Adaptation Plan, and the updated Climate Change Policy emphasize the reduced river capacity caused by bridges and encroachments. They have advocated for resilience through the restoration of wetlands and habitats, but these recommendations have largely been ignored.

Exceptional upstream rains, Himalayan snowmelt, and releases from Indian dams amidst heavy rainfall led to the 2025 inflows, which overwhelmed the plains of Punjab, displacing over 2 million people and impacting over 3.6 million, with millions more at risk as floodwaters move towards Sindh. This highlights systemic problems: encroached plains divert water onto communities, resulting in substantial economic losses. Strict zoning regulations are essential to break this cycle.

The Role of Glacial Melt and Monsoon Patterns
Increased Unpredictability

These factors contribute to unpredictability. Accelerated melting in the Himalayan, Hindu Kush, and Karakoram ranges due to warming is magnified during heatwaves, coinciding with irregular, concentrated rains that overwhelm the Chenab and Sutlej rivers in Punjab. This leads to riverine flooding in the province, while Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Sindh experience flash and urban floods.

Despite Pakistan’s minimal contribution to global emissions (less than 1%), the nation unjustly suffers from climate extremes, incurring USD 2 billion in losses. Pakistan must adapt to this evolving reality through improved basin monitoring, integrating it into development strategies.

Effectiveness of Flood Management Infrastructure
Barrages, Embankments, and Canals

Controlled systems frequently exacerbate downstream floods and droughts. Punjab generally managed its headworks and barrages effectively during the 2025 peaks, successfully managing overflows. However, the Flood Forecasting Division had previously warned that Head Panjnad, a barrage where five rivers converge, faced significant flood risks. Punjab has undertaken rehabilitation of most of its barrages, while Sindh is currently upgrading the Guddu and Sukkur barrages.

These hydraulic structures can create bottlenecks, impeding river flows and triggering breaches, thus shifting the burden without sufficient warning. Outdated and inadequate infrastructure fosters a false sense of security for adjacent developments. A strategic shift is necessary: adapting to coexist with floods, eliminating bottlenecks, allowing natural river flows, and nourishing floodplains. Integrating nature-based solutions, such as floodplain restoration, with modern technologies like automated barrage gates and AI-driven forecasting, is crucial.

Impact of Silt and Sediment Buildup
Elevated Riverbeds

Sediment accumulation has raised the bed of the Indus River, diminishing its flood handling capacity by 17.75%. Research indicates that this issue, combined with reduced water flow over a 24-year period, has nearly halved the river’s capacity to handle high water levels. Without proper management, sediment buildup leads to spills, erosion, breaches, and waterlogging.

This is a cyclical problem: past deforestation upstream led to increased soil erosion and sediment washing into the river. The ongoing failure to manage this sediment has significantly worsened recent floods, such as those in 2025, resulting in billions in damages and impacting countless individuals. Basin-wide sediment management strategies, including integrated watershed management for the Indus involving India and Afghanistan, are essential.

Future Flood Risks Due to Climate Change
Increased Intensity and Frequency

Climate change is projected to increase the intensity and frequency of floods in the Indus River basin over the next 20–30 years. This will primarily result from more intense monsoon rains, increased glacier melt, and rising sea levels that impede drainage in Sindh, creating a new normal of more severe flooding akin to the events of 2010, 2022, and 2025. This translates to heightened losses and vulnerability, with models projecting increased economic and human costs. Research from the World Weather Attribution supports the overarching trend of increasing vulnerability to flooding.

A combination of nature-based solutions, such as restoring wetlands to absorb floodwaters, and engineering solutions, coupled with enhanced governance across the river basin, is necessary to mitigate these risks.

Vulnerable Regions and Local Mitigation Strategies
Punjab Case Study

Low-lying districts along the Sutlej, Chenab, Ravi, and Indus rivers, including Multan, Jhang, Layyah, Dera Ghazi Khan, and Bahawalnagar, have been most affected by recent floods, impacting around four million people. Urban risk areas encompass cities such as Sialkot, Rawalpindi, Chakwal, and Lahore, which face severe flood risks due to drainage and planning deficiencies.

Effective safeguarding of these regions requires several measures, including the reconstruction and maintenance of concrete embankments, providing seasonal relocation incentives for local populations, deploying mobile and veterinary health units, and implementing elder-led evacuation strategies that leverage ancestral knowledge. Furthermore, empowering communities by addressing skills gaps in disaster preparedness can significantly reduce risks.

Improving Flood Warning Systems
Current Deficiencies and Solutions

While flood warning systems have improved since 2010, further enhancements are needed. There is a notable lack of preparedness. Poor communication is a critical issue. Warnings often fail to reach rural areas or are not broadcast in local languages or through accessible communication channels. Accuracy also remains a challenge, with information that is not always reliable or delivered in real time. This is sometimes compounded by a lack of data sharing between countries, as seen in the 2025 events involving India, particularly the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty in April.

To enhance these systems, steps should be taken such as implementing 24/7 monitoring, expanding communication through community radio and text message alerts, and ensuring improved coordination among all stakeholders, especially at the community level. Shifting from a top-down, reactive approach to a bottom-up, community-driven strategy that empowers local populations, particularly the most vulnerable, is paramount.

India’s Role in Punjab Floods
Water Release and Treaty Obligations

India’s release of excess dam water, including from the Bhakra dam upstream of Pakistan’s Punjab province, exacerbated monsoon surges. Under the Indus Water Treaty, India was obligated to maintain effective communication mechanisms. Pakistan suggests that India may have used water as a weapon; however, warnings were conveyed earlier through diplomatic channels—the first since the Indus Waters Treaty suspension—on humanitarian grounds.

Priorities for Flood Mitigation in Pakistan
Strategic Measures

Pakistan should prioritize rainwater harvesting, urban water reuse, the development of green building codes, the restoration of wetlands and floodplains, watershed management, and afforestation, which can collectively reduce flood peaks by 10-20%. A 2023 Dutch white paper also emphasizes integrated resilience through water “reuse” (spreading to recharge groundwater) and “retention/reduction” (via cross-drainage and flood channels), as well as “removing” (making space for the river through bridge redesign and bund removals) rather than resorting to mega-dam projects.

Dams are not a panacea. They entail substantial costs, ecological damage, displacement, and can even worsen floods. This was evident in 2025 when water was released from India’s full dams on the Ravi and Sutlej rivers into encroached plains, and the part of the Chenab river without dams surged to 1 million cusecs. Dams are widely perceived as detrimental to the poor and the environment, and as fundamentally unjust.

Regional Impact of the 2025 Floods
Province-Specific Losses

Nationwide, since late June, there have been over 900 monsoon-related fatalities. As of September 11, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa reported the highest number of deaths (504) due to flash floods, landslides, and cloudbursts. From August 14 to 16, cloudbursts triggered flash floods in the province, with Buner being the worst-hit district, recording at least 380 deaths. Shangla, Swat, and Swabi also experienced similar devastation. Intense rain, deforestation, valley blockages, and unregulated construction transformed debris into deadly hazards, highlighting the urgent need for planning and regulation in mountain areas.

Punjab faces the most significant infrastructure and agricultural losses. Sindh has experienced the longest periods of inundation and displacement due to its flat terrain and poor drainage. The terrain influences the impact; Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s slopes are deadly, while Punjab and Sindh suffer geographically widespread economic damage. The entire country requires multidimensional recovery efforts.

Risks to Sindh as a Lower Riparian Province
Vulnerability and Lack of Input

Sindh’s lower riparian status makes it vulnerable to unmanaged upstream floods. Despite this, the province lacks input regarding water releases or land use. Rains in Sindh escalate into disasters due to the flat terrain with limited flood escape routes, causing river flows to reclaim floodplains through devastating breaches and prolonged inundation.

Governance and Policy Gaps
Impediments to Effective Flood Management

Weak governance is the main impediment. A government report I contributed to in 2011 identified over 400 flood path obstructions, mapping over 350 coordinates. Flood responses are frequently fragmented and reactive, and agencies like the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) and its provincial counterparts remain disconnected from communities.

Irrigation departments are under-resourced and politicized, and the 10-year Flood Plan IV has stalled. Spatial planning regulations are poorly enforced, and elite development projects by entities like the Ravi Urban Development Authority tend to overshadow public safety considerations. Unclear mandates, overlapping institutions, and unresolved inter-provincial disputes persist. Progress requires clearly defined roles—specifying who is responsible, when, how, and at what cost.