Intense Heatwave Threatens South Asia

A severe heatwave is currently impacting South Asia, with forecasts suggesting temperatures in Pakistan could potentially match the global April record of 50 degrees Celsius. This level was previously observed in Nawabshah back in April 2018.

This projection comes after substantial temperature increases in the central and southern areas of Pakistan, where temperatures peaked at 47°C recently. This intense heat has triggered widespread advisories throughout the nation.

Official Warnings and Global Records

The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has issued a heatwave warning effective from April 26 to 30, urging citizens to adopt protective measures. Maximiliano Herrera, a weather historian, has verified Nawabshah’s 2018 temperature as the highest ever recorded in Asia during April.

The extreme heat is the result of a high-pressure system that is trapping warm air across a large region, extending from the Middle East into South Asia. This area has seen unusually elevated temperatures in April in recent years, aligning with a worldwide trend of increasingly frequent and severe heat extremes.

Peak Heat and Model Predictions

Weather models indicate that the most intense phase of the heatwave in Pakistan is anticipated. One reliable model forecasts maximum temperatures of approximately 48°C in the central parts of the country. However, this model slightly underestimated temperatures recently, hinting that this week’s actual temperatures might be slightly lower than 50°C.

Widespread Impact and Shifting Patterns

The heatwave’s impact is extensive, with forecasts indicating temperatures above 43°C in over twenty countries, including Pakistan, Iran, and India. This intense heat is expected to move eastward towards China later in the week. Concurrently, a new heatwave is predicted to develop across Central Asia, with temperatures in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan predicted to rise above 37°C.

Recent Temperature Anomalies

Pakistan has already experienced temperatures more than four degrees Celsius above the average for April, even before the current heatwave. Iraq recorded its highest April temperature on record at 46°C, while the UAE matched that record. Turkmenistan has seen particularly high anomalies, with temperatures exceeding the April average by over seven degrees Celsius. Niger also reported a national record of 45°C.

Global Temperature Trends

Across the globe, a substantial percentage of regions have experienced above-average temperatures this April, with far fewer regions experiencing cooler conditions. Many countries have been warmer than usual, compared to a smaller number with cooler conditions.

Despite the dissipation of a strong El Nino event, which contributed to a record-breaking warm year, a subsequent La Nina event early this year has not produced the typical cooling effect. The months from January to March this year were among the warmest ever recorded globally, only surpassed by the previous year.