Climate Change, Floods, and Governance Failures Addressed in Debate

During a recent discussion on climate change, floods, and governance failures, a participant in the Naya Pakistan program highlighted the unfortunate reality that those issuing no-objection certificates (NOCs) are also part of the problem.

Malik acknowledged that Pakistan’s early warning infrastructure is still not fully developed. He mentioned that a project to install 300 systems began in 2017, but only 12 were operational when he assumed his position.

He stated that absolute precision in weather prediction is unachievable, emphasizing the vital role of forests in mitigating floodwater impact.

Karachi Mayor Murtaza Wahab stressed that planting trees alone is insufficient; their upkeep is essential for survival. He identified encroachments on natural waterways as a primary cause of flooding in the city, asserting that nature will inevitably reclaim its original paths.

Wahab also criticized the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), pointing out their inaccurate forecast of reduced rainfall for August 19, which turned out to be the opposite of what occurred. He noted the unprecedented rainfall levels experienced in August over the past 90 years.

Climate expert Dr. Imran Ahmed suggested that enhanced data could lead to more reliable forecasting. He recalled the identification of 27 locations in Karachi for recharge wells, intended to facilitate stormwater absorption into the ground.

Meteorologist Ali Tauqeer Sheikh observed that Pakistan now faces both river and urban floods, yet continues to treat trees primarily as timber.

Water resources specialist Muhammad Mehr Ali Shah cautioned that extreme weather events, formerly infrequent, are becoming commonplace. He warned that Pakistan has already lost water equivalent to the combined storage capacity of the Tarbela and Mangla dams.

Shah emphasized that while stopping global warming is beyond our reach, preventing people from permanently residing in high-risk areas is crucial.

Urban planning professor Nausheen Anwar argued that development driven by profit has taken precedence over sound planning. She stated that while climate change is a challenge, our own mismanagement poses an equally significant problem, highlighting critical weaknesses in Pakistan’s urban development and management approaches.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif recently announced a nationwide initiative to control construction along rivers, streams, and natural waterways, following a rise in the death toll from weeks of flooding, reaching 788 by August 24.

Experts have long cautioned that unregulated riverbed mining, unlawful logging, and building on flood channels disrupt fragile ecosystems, obstruct drainage routes, and exacerbate the destructive impact of heavy rains and subsequent floods.

Last month, authorities in Gilgit-Baltistan, a region with over 13,000 glaciers, prohibited the construction of new hotels near lakes to minimize potential damage.

Since June 26, severe rains and floods have impacted vast areas of the country, with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa experiencing the most significant losses, reporting 469 fatalities. Punjab has reported 165 deaths, Sindh 54, Gilgit-Baltistan 45, Balochistan 24, Azad Kashmir 23, and Islamabad 8.

The Pakistan Meteorological Department has issued a warning that the monsoon season, anticipated to last until September 10, could trigger floods comparable to the devastating floods of 2010. In that year, entire districts were submerged. In 2022, intense summer rains, combined with rapidly melting glaciers, caused widespread flash floods that inundated nearly one-third of the nation.

The disaster resulted in over 1,700 deaths, with estimated damages exceeding $30 billion, according to official figures.

While Pakistan contributes less than 1% to global greenhouse gas emissions, it remains among the nations most vulnerable to the effects of climate change.