India’s Military Readiness Questioned Despite Modernization Efforts

Despite significant investments in new weaponry and defense alliances, experts suggest that India’s military may still be inadequately prepared for a potential conflict, even with the rapid upgrades implemented since the 2019 tensions, sources indicate.

A report highlighted the challenges faced by Indian officials during the last significant face-off, revealing that India’s large military was unwieldy, obsolete, and insufficiently equipped to manage potential border threats.

The urgency for India’s modernization programs increased after a fighter plane was shot down in 2019. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has since allocated billions to defense, promoted domestic manufacturing, and sought international partnerships for arms procurement.

The effectiveness of these efforts could soon face a real-world test.

Heightened tensions, spurred by vows of retaliation for a deadly terrorist incident in Illegally Indian Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK) allegedly linked to Pakistan, have brought the two nations close to conflict. India has threatened to block a major river system’s flow into Pakistan, a measure never before taken, even during previous wars.

Pakistan has called the potential water stoppage an “act of war,” while denying involvement in the Kashmir incident.

The tragic deaths of over two dozen tourists in a scenic valley sparked outrage in India, placing considerable pressure on PM Modi to take action against Pakistan. Analysts foresee a potentially prolonged and dangerous standoff, with strained diplomatic ties and global powers preoccupied with other crises.

However, analysts believe India might be cautious due to concerns about exposing its military’s ongoing transformation.

A 2018 parliamentary assessment classified 68% of India’s military equipment as “vintage,” 24% as current, and only 8% as state-of-the-art. An update five years later indicated limited progress, citing the scale of the challenge. While the proportion of advanced equipment nearly doubled by 2023, it remained below the required level for a modern army, with over half still considered outdated.

Experts suggest these limitations might push Modi toward more precise actions, like targeted airstrikes or special forces operations near the Pakistan border. Such measures could address public anger, reduce the risk of significant errors, and prevent escalatory retaliation. Pakistan has pledged a reciprocal response to any Indian incursion.

While public sentiment might encourage Modi to act, India’s democratic processes could also push him to maintain control over the situation.

In Pakistan, the military traditionally exerts significant influence, potentially allowing its leadership greater latitude and perhaps seeing domestic advantages in escalating the confrontation.

India expresses confidence in its ability to easily counter Pakistan’s military. Should this be tested, China, another neighbor, will be observing closely.

India increasingly views China as a more pressing border concern, particularly after a deadly clash in the Himalayas in 2020 and repeated incursions into Indian territory. Indian military leaders must prepare for a two-front conflict, which strains resources.

The 2020 clash occurred shortly after Pakistan downed an Indian jet. Dushyant Singh, a retired Indian general at the Centre for Land Warfare Studies, noted that the plane incident served as a wake-up call for the Indian military.

Since then, India has pursued multiple avenues to address its military shortcomings. New missile defense systems from Russia (despite U.S. objections), fighter jets from France, and drones, helicopters, and missiles from the United States have been acquired.

Recognizing the growing unreliability of global supply chains, India has invested heavily in domestic defense production, aiming to bolster its military’s long-term preparedness.

Singh emphasized the need for a war endurance that exceeds existing capabilities.

He cautioned that modernization efforts would require time to yield results.

Analysts highlighted bureaucratic, financial, and geopolitical challenges in modernizing India’s military.

Modi has sought to streamline defense procurement and improve coordination among forces, but faces difficulties due to ongoing disputes. The death of a key general tasked with military streamlining in a 2021 helicopter crash further complicated matters.

India’s economy, now the world’s fifth largest, provides increased resources for the military. However, defense spending remains below 2% of GDP, considered insufficient by military experts given the immense needs of India’s population.