Russia Adjusts Brent Crude Price Forecast for 2025

The Russian economy ministry has revised its average Brent crude price projection for 2025, decreasing it by approximately 17% from its previous estimate made in September, according to Interfax.

In its primary economic forecast scenario for 2025, the ministry now anticipates an average Brent price of $68 per barrel. This is a reduction from the $81.7 per barrel that was projected in September.

The ministry predicts the price of Urals, Russia’s benchmark crude, to be $56 per barrel, contrasting with the $69.7 per barrel factored into Russia’s 2025 budget.

A representative from the ministry stated, “We consider this to be a fairly cautious assessment.”

The price of Urals crude is essential for the country’s fiscal planning, with oil and gas revenues contributing a third of the total budget.

Earlier in April, the Russian central bank cautioned that oil prices might remain below projected levels for an extended period due to diminished global demand.

Urals prices experienced a drop to their lowest point since 2023 in early April, trading at around $53 per barrel, and remained below $60 last week.

The ministry also conveyed that it does not foresee significant recession risks stemming from U.S. trade policies and anticipates global economic growth to be slightly above 2% this year.

“The world is still larger than the United States; therefore, some flows will be redirected,” a ministry representative commented.

The ministry has maintained its gross domestic product growth forecast for Russia at 2.5% and increased its inflation forecast to 7.6% from the prior 4.5%.

They also foresee the rouble being somewhat stronger than previously expected, averaging 94.3 roubles per dollar this year, compared to the earlier forecast of 96.5 roubles.