Market Dips Amid Global and Local Economic Worries

The stock market experienced a downturn on Friday, influenced by renewed selling activity and ongoing concerns regarding global instability, trade regulations, and economic challenges within the country.

The KSE-100 index at the Pakistan Stock Exchange decreased by 1,335.88 points, a 1.15% drop, concluding at 114,853.33. Throughout the day, the index fluctuated between 115,937.38 and 114,639.92, reflecting investor caution due to persistent economic anxieties.

Trading volume reached 250.7 million shares, with a total value of Rs23.54 billion. The previous trading day concluded with the index at 116,189.21.

Amreen Soorani, Head of Research at Al Meezan Investment, noted that the Pakistan equity market has been highly volatile recently, marked by significant swings, including today’s decline. She attributed this volatility to anxieties related to global trade dynamics.

She stated that while the 90-day suspension of US tariffs provides a temporary respite, market participants are still cautious. The progress of the IMF program, developments related to the federal budget, and fluctuating international commodity prices are expected to significantly influence market sentiment.

Ahsan Mehanti, an analyst at Arif Habib Corp, pointed out that the early losses on Friday were driven by bearish global equities and a decline in global crude oil prices, fueled by concerns over the US-China trade situation. The instability of the rupee and a 9% year-on-year decrease in cement sales for March 2025 also played a role.

A report by the Islamabad-based think tank Tabadlab has projected that Pakistan could face an estimated export loss of $564 million in FY2025-26 due to substantial new tariffs imposed by the United States. The previous administration had announced a 29% tariff on Pakistani exports, but a 90-day pause has since been declared.

Amid this uncertainty, a high-level delegation is preparing to visit Washington to renegotiate trade terms. The government had confirmed the delegation’s visit before the temporary suspension of the tariff measures was announced.

Domestically, the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) is preparing for important discussions with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), with a technical mission scheduled to arrive in Islamabad on April 14. The two parties are expected to explore proposals to broaden the tax base, potentially including currently untaxed sectors and higher pension brackets, while the government considers relief for the salaried class.

On Thursday, the KSE-100 Index had shown a strong recovery, increasing by 2,036.05 points, or 1.78%, to close at 116,189.21. This boost was supported by a global rally prompted by the tariff pause. The day’s high reached 117,484.17, while the low was 116,130.9.

Analysts suggest that volatility is likely to continue in the upcoming sessions, with investors closely monitoring IMF discussions, budget proposals, and any new developments in global trade.