India Discharges Water into Ravi River, Pakistan on Alert

Following a prior alert regarding water discharge into the Sutlej River, India released water from the Madhopur Dam into the Ravi River on Monday. This action prompted the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) to issue a warning about potential flooding in Pakistan.

Diplomatic sources confirm that New Delhi contacted Pakistan on Monday, marking the second such communication in as many days, to caution about potential flooding in the Ravi River. This followed an earlier warning concerning the Tawi River in Jammu.

The Tawi River originates in the Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir region and flows into the Sialkot District of Punjab, Pakistan, serving as a significant tributary to the Chenab River.

This communication represents the first major diplomatic contact between India and Pakistan since the military tensions in May. Those tensions arose after New Delhi blamed Islamabad for the Pahalgam terror incident and then moved to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT).

The NDMA’s advisory indicated forecasts of substantial rainfall across Indian states like Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, which could lead to increased water levels in rivers and streams flowing toward Pakistan.

The National Emergency Operations Centre is closely monitoring the situation continuously, according to the notification.

Forecasts suggest that the Ravi River at Jassar may experience high flood levels within the next two days, with estimated flows between 80,000 and 125,000 cusecs.

In the upper catchment areas of the Chenab, water levels in the Jammu Tawi and Munawar Tawi streams are anticipated to rise, potentially increasing the Chenab’s discharge at Marala to between 150,000 and 200,000 cusecs.

The situation at the Sutlej River is also a concern. Officials reported that the river’s flow at Ganda Singh Wala in Kasur could reach up to 220,000 cusecs.

On Monday, the Flood Forecasting Division verified that the river was already in a high flood state at that location, with a recorded discharge of 182,188 cusecs.

The NDMA further highlighted that India’s Thein (Ranjit Sagar) Dam is nearing its full storage capacity, which elevates the risk of further water releases. Smaller streams and nullahs, including Aik, Deg, Bein, Basantar, and Palkhu, are also projected to experience higher flows.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has instructed the NDMA to conduct daily monsoon review meetings. The NDMA stated that it is supporting provincial and local departments to enhance preparedness and relief operations.

The Foreign Office affirmed in a statement on Monday that India is obligated to fully adhere to all provisions outlined in the treaty.

The statement also mentioned that India’s unilateral declaration to hold the IWT in abeyance constitutes a severe breach of international law and could adversely impact regional peace and stability.

Following the recent alert, authorities have issued warnings based on the information provided by India.

New Delhi alleges that Islamabad orchestrated a deadly militant assault, an accusation that Pakistan refutes.

Based on these claims, India initiated military actions against Pakistan in May, leading to significant military engagement before a ceasefire was negotiated with US assistance.

The water treaty has persevered through multiple wars and conflicts between the two nations, enduring numerous fluctuations in diplomatic relations.

Reports from May 16 indicated that Delhi is contemplating projects that might diminish the water flow into Pakistan from rivers allocated to it.

India has also stated its intention to “keep the treaty in abeyance until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism.”

Conversely, Islamabad asserts that “any attempt to stop or divert the flow of water belonging to Pakistan” would constitute an “act of war”.