U.S. Market Expectations: Grain and Soy Complex Trading

Here’s what to anticipate as grain and soy complex trading resumes at the Chicago Board of Trade at 8:30 a.m. CDT (1330 GMT) on Thursday.

Wheat

  • Expected to trade steady to decline by 2 cents per bushel.
  • CBOT wheat experienced some weakness due to favorable rains in U.S. winter wheat regions.
  • Support from gains in corn and soy markets is expected to buffer further drops.
  • The most actively traded CBOT July wheat contract reached a 2-1/2 week low during overnight trading sessions.
Export Sales Report
  • The USDA revealed net old-crop U.S. wheat export cancellations totaling 145,000 metric tons for the week concluding on April 17, aligning with market forecasts.
  • New-crop sales exceeded anticipations, registering 371,700 tons.
Wheat Prices
  • CBOT July soft red winter wheat was last unchanged at $5.43-1/2 per bushel.
  • K.C. July hard red winter wheat was last down 3-1/2 cents, priced at $5.46-3/4 a bushel.
  • Minneapolis July spring wheat saw a decrease of 1-1/2 cents, settling at $6.05-1/2 a bushel.

Corn

  • Anticipated to hold steady to gain 2 cents per bushel.
  • Corn futures are projected to strengthen due to short-covering and technical buying following recent downturns.
  • Strong export sales figures are also expected to lend support.
  • The July corn contract sustained technical chart support at its 100-day moving average during overnight trading, briefly surpassing its 50-day moving average.
Export Sales Data
  • U.S. corn export sales amounted to 1,152,900 metric tons last week, primarily driven by Japan’s purchases of 629,200 tons, based on USDA data. These sales were consistent with trade projections.
  • CBOT July corn was last reported down by 1-1/4 cents, trading at $4.80-1/2 per bushel.

Soybeans

  • Expected to increase by 1 to 5 cents per bushel.
  • Soybeans are forecasted to rise due to technical buying activity and robust cash markets.
  • Concerns regarding U.S.-China trade relations may influence market sentiment.
  • July soybeans maintained technical chart support at its 200-day moving averages during overnight trading and equaled the two-month high from the prior session.
Trade Discussions
  • U.S. officials have hinted at potential tariff reductions as part of ongoing negotiations with China, although Beijing has refuted claims of active trade talks.
Export Sales Figures
  • U.S. soybean export sales decreased to 277,000 metric tons for shipments in the 2024/25 marketing year, as per USDA data. These sales were in line with trade expectations.
  • CBOT July soybeans were last up 3-1/4 cents, trading at $10.53-1/2 per bushel.