ILO Revises Downward Global Employment Projections for 2025

The International Labour Organization (ILO) has adjusted its global employment forecast for 2025, now anticipating the creation of 53 million jobs, a decrease from the initial projection of 60 million.

This adjustment signifies a deceleration in global employment expansion from 1.7% to 1.5% this year.

In its recent assessment, the UN agency attributed this reduction, equivalent to approximately seven million fewer job opportunities, to a diminished global economic outlook, with GDP growth anticipated at 2.8%, a decline from the prior estimate of 3.2%.

According to ILO Director-General Gilbert F. Houngbo, a slower-than-expected expansion of the global economy is to blame. The report suggests that ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions, alongside unresolved fundamental issues reshaping the world of work, could severely impact labor markets globally.

The ILO estimates that about 84 million jobs across 71 nations are either directly or indirectly dependent on consumer demand in the United States. These jobs now face increased risk due to heightened trade tensions.

A significant portion, approximately 56 million of these positions, are concentrated within the Asia-Pacific region.

The assessment also draws attention to concerning patterns in income allocation.

The proportion of GDP allocated to labor income decreased globally from 53% in 2014 to 52.4% in 2024.

Africa and the Americas experienced the most significant contractions.

The report emphasized that had this proportion remained stable, global labor income would have been $1 trillion higher in 2024, equating to an additional $290 per worker in terms of consistent purchasing power.

The ILO suggests that this decline in the percentage of global income allocated to workers contributes to growing inequality and underscores a disparity between economic advancement and employee remuneration.

Furthermore, the ILO report indicates a transition in employment patterns toward higher-skilled roles.

The report indicated women are at the forefront of this trend.

Between 2013 and 2023, the percentage of women employed in high-skilled roles increased from 21.2% to 23.2%, whereas the percentage of men in high-skilled roles remained around 18% in 2023.

The study also revealed that approximately one in four workers may experience job transformations due to advancements in generative AI.

The report determined that while a considerable number of medium-skilled jobs face potential changes, a greater proportion of high-skilled roles are more susceptible to automation through AI.