The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Pakistan’s GDP growth forecast for 2025, projecting a slower pace of 3%, down from the earlier estimate of 3.2%. The IMF’s latest report, “World Economic Outlook Update Global Growth: Divergent and Uncertain,” cites global uncertainties and fluctuating commodity prices as key factors contributing to the downward revision.

Despite the dip, the IMF expects Pakistan’s economy to maintain a moderate recovery, with the 2026 growth forecast remaining steady at 4%. This aligns with projections from the Asian Development Bank (ADB), which also adjusted its growth estimate for Pakistan to 3% for FY 2024-25, an improvement from 2.8% earlier.

The global economy is forecasted to grow at 3.3% in 2025, a figure slightly below the historical average of 3.7%. IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas noted that the United States’ economic performance is expected to offset weaker growth in other major economies.

Pakistan’s projected growth faces challenges from both internal and external factors. While domestic policies and easing inflation pressures could support recovery, rising energy commodity prices and global inflationary trends are expected to dampen overall economic activity.

In contrast, the IMF sees stronger growth in emerging markets such as India, with a projected 6.5% growth for both 2025 and 2026. China’s economy is expected to grow at 4.6% in 2025, supported by an emphasis on domestic demand.

As the global economy faces headwinds, Pakistan will need to navigate both domestic policy challenges and external pressures to maintain its growth trajectory.