Grain Prices Decline Amid Trade War Uncertainty and Favorable Weather

Global grain markets experienced a downturn on Monday, with Chicago soybeans, wheat, and corn prices all falling due to uncertainty surrounding discussions aimed at resolving the trade dispute between the United States and China.

Additionally, forecasts predicting beneficial rainfall in key U.S. grain-growing regions put downward pressure on wheat prices.

A trader in Singapore noted the ambiguity surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations, stating that U.S. soybeans entering China would, at present, be subject to tariffs.

As of 1106 GMT, the most actively traded soybeans on the Chicago Board of Trade decreased by 0.4% to $10.54-1/4 per bushel. Corn futures dropped 0.9% to $4.80-1/4 a bushel, while wheat futures declined 1.5% to $5.36-3/4 a bushel.

A German trader commented that a swift resolution to the U.S./China trade conflict appeared unlikely, citing conflicting statements from high-level officials.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated on Sunday that he had not engaged in tariff discussions with Chinese representatives and was unsure whether President Donald Trump had communicated with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping.

Last week, President Trump indicated that tariff discussions with China were ongoing and that he had spoken with Xi. However, Beijing has refuted claims that trade talks are currently taking place.

Reports from the previous week indicating that China had granted exemptions from tariffs on certain U.S. goods raised expectations for a potential easing of tensions. Nevertheless, traders suggest that Chinese tariffs will likely continue to impede U.S. soybean and grain exports to China in the near future.

The German trader also mentioned that weather forecasts predicted rainfall in the U.S. Plains region in the coming week, which would benefit wheat crops. Furthermore, they noted that Russian wheat exports were increasing despite low U.S. prices, creating unwelcome competition for U.S. and Western European exporters.

Moreover, it is believed that U.S. soybean and corn planting is progressing well, with rainfall not significantly hindering progress, according to traders.

Russian wheat exports for April are projected to reach 2.2 million metric tons, an increase from 1.9 million tons in March.