The 2026 men’s NCAA tournament begins Thursday with four elite teams separated from the field as overwhelming championship favorites. Arizona, Duke, Michigan, and Florida have established themselves as the clear tier above all other contenders entering March Madness. These four programs received the most votes in a poll of 60 ESPN analysts and 25 coaches and scouts to win the national title. The separation mirrors last season, when all four number one seeds reached the Final Four for the first time since 2008.

Arizona earned the most championship votes among coaches and scouts, receiving 12 predictions to win it all. The Wildcats dominated Big 12 tournament play and rank in the top five nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Coach Tommy Lloyd has built a deep, balanced roster featuring clutch late-game shooters in Jaden Bradley and Brayden Burries. Arizona’s dominance in the paint and on the offensive glass makes them a heavyweight matchup for any opponent.

Duke received five championship votes after definitively establishing itself as a title contender. The number one overall seed won the East region prediction with nearly two-thirds of analyst votes. Michigan and Florida each garnered multiple votes, with the Wolverines seeking their first national championship since 1989 and the Gators aiming to repeat their 2025 title. Houston and Purdue each received one vote to win it all.

Beyond the Big Four, other teams received significant expert attention. UConn seeks its third national title in four seasons after winning the Big East regular season. St. John’s swept Big East titles but received minimal championship votes despite their tournament success. The Johnnies’ number five seed placement has drawn criticism from analysts who view them as significantly underseeded.

Statisticians note that four number one seeds reaching the Final Four again is unlikely, though the top four teams dominate advanced metrics. Arizona boasts a slight overall favorite status with superior health and favorable bracket positioning in the West region. Duke, Michigan, and Arizona remain tightly bunched in championship probability according to advanced forecasting models. The tournament begins with first-round games Thursday.