Pakistan Anticipates Severe Winter Due to La Niña

A report by the Intersector Coordination Group (ISCG) indicates that Pakistan is bracing for a potentially record-breaking cold winter, influenced by the La Niña climate pattern.

The latest situation update concerning the monsoon floods in Pakistan cautions that the La Niña phenomenon could usher in unusually low temperatures across much of the country. This is expected to place additional strain on communities impacted by the floods, particularly those in the mountainous regions of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Gilgit Baltistan (GB).

La Niña is characterized by a significant drop in sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, which in turn affects global weather patterns, often resulting in extreme shifts in temperature.

The UN-OCHA report’s October forecast suggests that slightly negative phases of both the El Nino Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole are predicted to have an impact on rainfall patterns throughout Pakistan.

According to the forecast, “Northern Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Azad Jammu and Kashmir, and Gilgit Baltistan might experience rainfall below the normal range, whereas southern areas, including Sindh, Balochistan, and southern Punjab, are anticipated to receive precipitation levels close to the average.”

The report further stated, “The anticipated impacts encompass possible disruptions to Kharif crop harvesting due to isolated storms, a heightened risk of dengue outbreaks in stagnant water conditions, increased likelihood of glacial lake outburst floods in higher altitude areas, decreased river inflows affecting irrigation, amplified smog and air pollution in the plains, and negative consequences for livestock health and the availability of fodder as a result of higher-than-normal temperatures.”

Furthermore, it was stated that Pakistan is confronting a growing post-flood situation distinguished by a reduced response capacity coupled with growing dangers pertaining to food security and health.

The assessment drew attention to “a decline in response capabilities from both the government and humanitarian organizations.” It explained that although local and international parties initially provided a robust response, their presence and resources on the ground have since diminished.

“Pre-positioned supplies and initial emergency funds have been utilized, and humanitarian partners are now seeking additional funding for ongoing interventions aimed at ensuring the provision of essential services during the transition from a humanitarian response phase to the early stages of recovery,” the report mentioned.

A recent geospatial impact evaluation conducted by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) revealed that floodwaters had submerged approximately 1.2 million hectares in Punjab, which serves as the country’s agricultural center, causing substantial damage to vital rice, cotton, and sugarcane harvests. The flooding coincided with the pivotal period for Rabi crop planting, intensifying concerns about food security and livelihoods.

The report concluded, “Crop fields were inundated, leading to the destruction of harvests, livestock, and fodder being swept away, and essential assets such as machinery and agricultural implements being damaged or destroyed, thus severely affecting livelihoods and diminishing prospects for resuming income-generating activities in the foreseeable future.”